2012 Music Money Goes Digital – Now There Is Movement

February 20, 2008

Forrester Research has a new report with the titel “The End Of The Music Industry As We Know It“. According to this report digitally downloaded music will surpass physical CD sales in 2012.

Here are some free slides (ppt) of the teleconference to the report release.

Perhaps it´s numbers like that, why labels finally are talking now with a lot of people in the digital area about new distribution models … and about more serious conditions…
So for example there a rumours since last week that MySpace is making a deal with the labels to get DRM free ad supported downloads on their site. Omnifone launches a new mobile music subscription service bundled with a handset (similar to Nokia’s model)… not mentioning the Last.Fm thing, the Google China talks… and so on… news coming in weekly… there is movement now…
What about Apple? I am looking forward to here some news from there…

So fact is, in the next months there will develope a lot of new ways to experience music, legal music, and often free or feel like free music. What could happen?
Customers could get confused. Which model is the right one? Where do I get a good deal? What is free what not? What is legal and which services or applications are not? Is there any difference? Do I have to pay for music?

Studies like this (from KRC for Microsoft) show that most of the young users still don`t think they do something like stealing in the net.

So this new developement, this confusion, won`t change this “thinking”. So … Do pay per download models have any chance in the future?
And here we are back at the Forrester Research report. They say subscription services won`t make it till 2012 – Digital downloads will make the race.

forrester-digital-music.gif

Well, I am not sure about that. I don`t know when subscription services finally can handle their problems, but I am sure that “feels like free services” and ad supported models will grow. Why should digital pay per download models grow so fast?

Well… but what do I know…

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